the president will do quite well in new york and california and some of the other blue states. that's part of why the national polls might not be that great an indicator. >> these national states haven't seen the advertising, haven't seen the campaigning, haven't seen the targeted messaging. that's where the president's team has built the operation that they think will allow them to go from tied nationally to a little bit of an advantage. >> it depends which poll you look at. most of them show mitt romney has a lead among independents. if you're the romney campaign is that your reason for optimism tonight and tomorrow? >> three reasons to be optimistic. one is in a lot of polls, they're doing betting with independents. in a state like ohio, the candidate who wins independents usually wins. david axelrod such as much on the show last week. an incumbent below 50% at 47%, 48%, you have to think you might lose. and third is, ever reporter who's been out in the last week with the candidates has seen there's a lot of enthusiasm on the republican side. i'm not saying there's not enthu